Log in

Login to your account

Username *
Password *
Remember Me

Forgot your password | Forgot your username

Sentiment April 2017

 Last month we showed how our sentiment indicator  was in over confidence on the stock market.

We have therefore seen  a minimum downward  sufficient  to return, at least for the short term, the indicator to a neutral position.

Nothing has changed if we consider the monthly  signal that is near to the absolute maximum, thus indicating an excess of positivity (see Annex 1).

How sustainable is the current equity trend? For a better understanding of the current situation, we are pointing to two more interesting indicators as they  are  always resulted  reliable.

- Margin debt (see Annex 2) represents the open positions of the traders on the NYSE. Clarity is the relationship between these positions and the sustainability of quotations. In April, the positions again grew, fueling the bull market.  Breaking  the maximum will be a further propellant for the market.

- Participation indicator (see Annex 3) is a "democratic" indicator that represents market share (specifically the MSCW) of the world's major stock exchanges (Asia-Europe-America-South America-Africa and the Middle East). The trend of the indicator is definitely set to rise, condition also found in the sub-indicators by geographical area.

In conclusion, we still consider the proposed scenario of a lateral-bearish trend bringing the SP500 index up to the 2200 area without compromising the bullish trend in place since 2009.


Giorgio Giovannoni