We begin from this month the release of a brief analysis of the state of the stock markets and our sentiment indicator.
We will concentrate on the index SP 500, as a valid signal for the remaining markets, and with a monthly time frame.
Prices have moved along primary dynamic trends, contained in a long-term bullish channel, before reversing the trend. This channel was abandoned with bullish acceleration of the courses that projected the SP 500 to 2400 points, thus forming a new channel.
But something has changed over the past few weeks, including in relation to the obstacles encountered by the reforms of new president of USA, and the courses turned from the peak.
Let us now analyze what has happened in the course of the last weeks in the light of our "Sentiment" indicator that, similarly to other indicators, are aimed at identifying excesses of optimism or pessimism.
It’s evident overcoming the last barrier which measures the excess of the market; we are just a 5% away from the highs seen in December 2016 before the bearish trend that we remember well.
Let's see what could be the scenarios for the coming weeks:
- a quick retracement, the favorite, to the area in 2200 with the restart for the final target of 2500 top of the new channel;
- a strenuous sideways trend which will allow a scaling of sentiment indicator.
In both solutions it will be important and decisive the support of the primary trend; the abandonment of the 2180/2150 will determine the end of the uptrend in place since March 2009.