SENTIMENT 04/2019
April ends with stock markets achieve a further positive result driven by an strong SP500.
Unlike the US index, which revisited the maximum, other main indices are still below 7-10% from the 2018 highs.
Therefore, after five months from the 2018 minimum it is necessary, more than other times, estimate the market’s state and the expectations for the coming months with our usual indicators.
Sentiment index (annex 1) - compared to last month the indicator, whereby we measure the operator’s confidence about SP500 index, is now in the first alert zone against an index that has reached new highs. It is not a determining for assessing the state of market's health but, doubtless, it is factor to keep in mind;
SP500 (annex 2) - SOX (annex 3) - both are on new highs but from technical view they offer a different reading. Stock index is now near to a dynamic resistance that could temporarily hinder its recovery. The eventual reversal should not punch level 2840 pts , but the upside target is at 3200. The SOX has brilliantly overrun the absolute maximums and the final target is always at 1697 pts;
M.Q. Index (annex 4) - it is confirmed that alarms highlighted by the indicator in past few months are neutralized and it is certainly a good signal;
MSCI World (annex 5) - the chart has again positioned in uptrend in the bullish channel after tested its support corresponding to 2018 lows .
Conclusions:
- considering the level reached by the "sentiment index", as well as the dynamic resistance on which SP500 is now , we suppose in a temporary stop of market that will have to find the new bases for the restart.
-operatively we suggest now a closer control of money management and the start of hedging on stock indexes.
05/08/2019
Giorgio Giovannoni
 MQ Index (all.4).pdf | [ ] | 118 kB |
| MSCI World (all.5).pdf | [ ] | 40 kB |
.png) SOX (all.3).png | [ ] | 77 kB |
.png) SP500 Monthly (all.2).png | [ ] | 164 kB |
| SP500-Sentiment (all.1).pdf | [ ] | 230 kB |
