Sentiment 07/2018

By now it is evident the year 2018 will constitute the turning point of the markets after nine years of ascent.

For now SP500 is still demonstrating  its leading  role and a relative strength superior to the other world indices, fixes  always near  to the period maximums. On the other hand,  we are seeing  the  lateral-descending trend of the main European indices with the DAX and FTSEMIB indices in evident difficulty.

Also the different trend between the SP500 VIX, and the STOXX50 VIX, shows how the American market is still bought with the Sentiment indicator at medium high values but  with VIX at very low levels.

Certainly the excellent quarterly US corporates, and the still surprising  macro data, helped to support the index.

While not detecting, by  proprietary indices , any particular signs of inversion, we change our view on the stock market from "Moderately positive" to "Neutral"; while we reconfirm the opportunity to increase the weight of the ten - year and even thirty - year Tbonds.

Giorgio Giovannoni

08/14/2018