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Sentiment 9/2017

In March this year, in the same section, we had expeted  for the SP500 a final target of 2500 pts. even though it can be reached with two different ways.

In support of our thesis we attached two graphs.

Today we are at 2538 points, achieved after a period of slight decline and an acceleration following Trump's election.

Let us  use the same graphs as in the March report.

The SP500 index:

has reached the price area 2558 particularly significant as it coincides with the dynamic resistance of a bullish channel.

Overcoming this new barrier would open  the way for a new, much wider channel, which would lead to a 3100 index with market times.

There is, of course, also the possibility of a significant retraction, considered  the importance of the area and the ways of achieving the target.

The Sentiment indicator:

it measures investors'  greed and  we are at a top  achieved in coincidence with the maximum of the index.

We are moving on tops in almost all major indexes,  but  we cannot rule out  further surprises from  the market .

The MQ Idx Indicator:

we have already mentioned it in another report.

It is a proprietary indicator that has excellently absolved its predictive function although sometimes with one / two months of delay as the data is processed every month.

For  clarity, we highlighted the most significant turning points.

At the end of September the indicator and its two mobile averages turned down, but it will be decisive to check when the fastest average crosses the slowest slope and then the downturn of the indicator. 

10/05/2017

 

Giorgio Giovannoni

Attachments:
Download this file (Indicatore macro USA.pdf)Indicatore macro USA.pdf[ ]118 kB
Download this file (Indicatore sentiment USA.pdf)Indicatore sentiment USA.pdf[ ]213 kB
Download this file (SP500 monthly.png)SP500 monthly.png[ ]160 kB

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