April ends with stock markets achieve a further positive result driven by an strong SP500.
 MQ Index (all.4).pdf | [ ] | 118 kB |
| MSCI World (all.5).pdf | [ ] | 40 kB |
.png) SOX (all.3).png | [ ] | 77 kB |
.png) SP500 Monthly (all.2).png | [ ] | 164 kB |
| SP500-Sentiment (all.1).pdf | [ ] | 230 kB |
Once again the fear of the slowdown of the economies, indeed still not dissipated, has been ignored by the markets, also accomplices the two main central banks in “dovish” version on rates.
| M.Q. Index All. 4.pdf | [ ] | 118 kB |
| RS Vs.MSCI WORLD $ - All. 5.pdf | [ ] | 40 kB |
| Sentiment Index All. 1.pdf | [ ] | 133 kB |
 SOX All.3.png | [ ] | 79 kB |
 SP500 All. 2.png | [ ] | 157 kB |
We ask ourselves , in light of these first months and after the heavy losses recorded last year, if the up-trend is back.
.png) C.O.T. (All.4).png | [ ] | 106 kB |
| Indicatore macro USA (All.3).pdf | [ ] | 117 kB |
.png) SP500 Monthly (All.2).png | [ ] | 154 kB |
| SP500-Sentiment (All.1).pdf | [ ] | 133 kB |
" The market scenario is further complicated not only for the large losses recorded on almost all assets, exception for gold and US government bonds, but due to the contrasting signals coming from various indicators and recent macroeconomic data"”
| Borse Mondiali (all.3).pdf | [ ] | 160 kB |
| Indicatore probabilità recessione USA (all.5).pdf | [ ] | 411 kB |
| Ratio 5yr-Fed fund (all.6).pdf | [ ] | 433 kB |
.png) SOX Index (all.4).png | [ ] | 44 kB |
.png) SP500 Monthly (all.2).png | [ ] | 137 kB |
| SP500-Sentiment Index (all.1).pdf | [ ] | 240 kB |
The market scenario is further complicated not only for the large losses recorded on almost all assets, exception for gold and US government bonds, but due to the contrasting signals coming from various indicators and recent macroeconomic data.
| Borse mondiali-Annex 4.pdf | [ ] | 156 kB |
| MQ index-Annex 3.pdf | [ ] | 240 kB |
| Sentiment index-Annex 2.pdf | [ ] | 233 kB |
 SP500 Monthly-Annex 1.png | [ ] | 143 kB |
During November the global equity indices continued their fall, entering in some cases as DAX, in a "Bear market" context by losses over 20% from the highs.
| Indicatore macro USA.pdf | [ ] | 118 kB |
| Sentiment USA.pdf | [ ] | 227 kB |
| Yiled curve-recession.pdf | [ ] | 84 kB |
The first cracks on the indexes seen in September turned into sell off all assets during all October.
| Indicatore macro USA - All. 5.pdf | [ ] | 117 kB |
| Indicatore probabilità recessione USA - All. 4.pdf | [ ] | 136 kB |
| Indicatore SP500 SENTIMENT - All. 2.pdf | [ ] | 227 kB |
 SOX - All. 3.png | [ ] | 37 kB |
 SP500 Monthly - All.1.png | [ ] | 146 kB |
In our July article we briefly explained how our market view changed from "Moderately Positive" to "Neutral".
| ESX600 e M1 All.2.pdf | [ ] | 89 kB |
| Fair value TBond 10yr - All.3.pdf | [ ] | 234 kB |
| Indicatore macro USA All.8.pdf | [ ] | 117 kB |
| Margin debt - SP500 - All.1.pdf | [ ] | 80 kB |
| RS Vs.MSCI WORLD $ - All.4.pdf | [ ] | 39 kB |
| RS Vs.MSCI WORLD $ - All.5.pdf | [ ] | 37 kB |
| RS Vs.MSCI WORLD $ - All.6.pdf | [ ] | 152 kB |
 SP500 All.7.png | [ ] | 114 kB |
By now it is evident the year 2018 will constitute the turning point of the markets after nine years of ascent.
The equity markets in June continued the route to the south marking new lows . Some indices, moreover, are officially in a "bear market".
Equity market’s scene is getting complicated. Very negative month was May for some European markets, with a strong sell-off for the Italian and Spanish indexes , as well as for some emerging markets (Brazil, Turkey, Mexico, Malaysia).
Another time the equity market surprise us with a reversal of trend and, while last month we wrote about the potential risks of correction, today we reflect on other option of a positive recovery of the primary trend.
The complicity of war duties and international tensions, made the stock market have another tumble, fueling doubts about the sustainability of the uptrend.
 All. 1 - SP500 Monthly.png | [ ] | 185 kB |
| All. 2 -SENTIMENT.pdf | [ ] | 226 kB |
| All. 3 - TED SPREAD.pdf | [ ] | 176 kB |
| All. 4 - PROBABILITA' RECESSIONE USA.pdf | [ ] | 135 kB |
| All. 5 - MQ Idx USA.pdf | [ ] | 117 kB |
Last month, in this section, we provided the parameters to identify the first alert signals in the stock market trend, after the February’s correction.
The usual report is coincident with a crucial moment in the markets and investment assets.
| Andamento borse mondiali - All.3.pdf | [ ] | 37 kB |
| Indicatore macro USA - All.4.pdf | [ ] | 120 kB |
| Sentiment SP500 - All.2.pdf | [ ] | 226 kB |
 SP500 Monthly - All.1.png | [ ] | 162 kB |
Recent central bank meetings have not given news about the monetary policy they will pursue in the future.
| Indicatore macro USA.pdf | [ ] | 118 kB |
| Yield Curve.pdf | [ ] | 87 kB |
In March this year, in the same section, we had expeted for the SP500 a final target of 2500 pts. even though it can be reached with two different ways.
| Indicatore macro USA.pdf | [ ] | 118 kB |
| Indicatore sentiment USA.pdf | [ ] | 213 kB |
 SP500 monthly.png | [ ] | 160 kB |
The considerations of excessive optimism on the markets and the various assets, which have long argued in this section, find further confirmations this month with some deteriorating data.
June did not reserve any significant news compared to our previous article, apart the drop of European indexes.
| Indicatore macro USA - 2.pdf | [ ] | 111 kB |
| Indicatore macro USA.pdf | [ ] | 205 kB |
 SP500.png | [ ] | 198 kB |
 STOXX600.png | [ ] | 81 kB |
Some market fundamentals, which led these years of general rising, are changing and it is advisable to take awareness.
 GOLD.png | [ ] | 99 kB |
 SP500 Monthly.png | [ ] | 159 kB |
| Spread rendimenti.pdf | [ ] | 136 kB |
 USA 10YR.png | [ ] | 112 kB |
 USA JPY.png | [ ] | 37 kB |
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