April ends with stock markets achieve a further positive result driven by an strong SP500.
Once again the fear of the slowdown of the economies, indeed still not dissipated, has been ignored by the markets, also accomplices the two main central banks in “dovish” version on rates.
We ask ourselves , in light of these first months and after the heavy losses recorded last year, if the up-trend is back.
" The market scenario is further complicated not only for the large losses recorded on almost all assets, exception for gold and US government bonds, but due to the contrasting signals coming from various indicators and recent macroeconomic data"”
The market scenario is further complicated not only for the large losses recorded on almost all assets, exception for gold and US government bonds, but due to the contrasting signals coming from various indicators and recent macroeconomic data.
During November the global equity indices continued their fall, entering in some cases as DAX, in a "Bear market" context by losses over 20% from the highs.
The first cracks on the indexes seen in September turned into sell off all assets during all October.
In our July article we briefly explained how our market view changed from "Moderately Positive" to "Neutral".
By now it is evident the year 2018 will constitute the turning point of the markets after nine years of ascent.
The equity markets in June continued the route to the south marking new lows . Some indices, moreover, are officially in a "bear market".
Equity market’s scene is getting complicated. Very negative month was May for some European markets, with a strong sell-off for the Italian and Spanish indexes , as well as for some emerging markets (Brazil, Turkey, Mexico, Malaysia).
Another time the equity market surprise us with a reversal of trend and, while last month we wrote about the potential risks of correction, today we reflect on other option of a positive recovery of the primary trend.
The complicity of war duties and international tensions, made the stock market have another tumble, fueling doubts about the sustainability of the uptrend.
Last month, in this section, we provided the parameters to identify the first alert signals in the stock market trend, after the February’s correction.
The usual report is coincident with a crucial moment in the markets and investment assets.
Recent central bank meetings have not given news about the monetary policy they will pursue in the future.
In March this year, in the same section, we had expeted for the SP500 a final target of 2500 pts. even though it can be reached with two different ways.
June did not reserve any significant news compared to our previous article, apart the drop of European indexes.